Power System Parameters Forecasting Using Hilbert-Huang Transform and Machine Learning

A novel hybrid data-driven approach is developed for forecasting power system parameters with the goal of increasing the efficiency of short-term forecasting studies for non-stationary time-series. The proposed approach is based on mode decomposition and a feature analysis of initial retrospective data using the Hilbert-Huang transform and machine learning algorithms. The random forests and gradient boosting trees learning techniques were examined. The decision tree techniques were used to rank the importance of variables employed in the forecasting models. The Mean Decrease Gini index is employed as an impurity function. The resulting hybrid forecasting models employ the radial basis function neural network and support vector regression. Apart from introduction and references the paper is organized as follows. The section 2 presents the background and the review of several approaches for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. In the third section a hybrid machine learning-based algorithm using Hilbert-Huang transform is developed for short-term forecasting of power system parameters. Fourth section describes the decision tree learning algorithms used for the issue of variables importance. Finally in section six the experimental results in the following electric power problems are presented: active power flow forecasting, electricity price forecasting and for the wind speed and direction forecasting

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Forecasting of electric load (EL) is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Energy Microgrids Management Considering Flexible Energy Sources

The problem of optimally activating the flexible energy sources (short- and long-term storage capacities) of electricity microgrid is formulated as a sequential decision making problem under uncertainty where, at every time-step, the uncertainty comes from the lack of knowledge about future electricity consumption and weather dependent PV production. This paper proposes to address this problem using deep reinforcement learning. To this purpose, a specific deep learning architecture has been used in order to extract knowledge from past consumption and production time series as well as any available forecasts. The approach is empirically illustrated in the case of off-grid microgrids located in Belgium and Russia

Improving the principles of short-term electric load forecasting of the Irkutsk region

Forecasting of electric load (EL) is an important task for both electric power entities and large consumers of electricity [1]. Large consumers are faced with the need to compose applications for the planned volume of EL, and the deviation of subsequent real consumption from previously announced leads to the appearance of penalties from the wholesale market. In turn, electricity producers are interested in forecasting the demand for electricity for prompt response to its fluctuations and for the purpose of optimal infrastructure development. The most difficult and urgent task is the hourly forecasting of EL, which is extremely important for the successful solution of problems of optimization of generating capacities, minimization of power losses, dispatching control, security assessment of power supply, etc. Ultimately, such forecasts allow optimizing the cash costs for electricity and fuel or water consumption during generation. This paper analyzes the experience of the branch of JSC "SO UPS" Irkutsk Regional Dispatch Office of the procedure for short-term forecasting of the EL of the Irkutsk region

Deep Reinforcement Learning for Energy Microgrids Management Considering Flexible Energy Sources

The problem of optimally activating the flexible energy sources (short- and long-term storage capacities) of electricity microgrid is formulated as a sequential decision making problem under uncertainty where, at every time-step, the uncertainty comes from the lack of knowledge about future electricity consumption and weather dependent PV production. This paper proposes to address this problem using deep reinforcement learning. To this purpose, a specific deep learning architecture has been used in order to extract knowledge from past consumption and production time series as well as any available forecasts. The approach is empirically illustrated in the case of off-grid microgrids located in Belgium and Russia

Stability of Power Grids: State-of-the-art and Future Trends

The state of the art of transient stability and steady-state (small signal) stability in power grids are reviewed. Transient stability concepts are illustrated with simple examples; in particular, we consider two machine learning-based methods for computing region of attraction: ROA produced by Neural Network Lyapunov Function; estimation of the ROA of IEEE 39-bus system using Gaussian process and Converse Lyapunov function. We discuss steady state stability in power systems, and using Prony’s modal analysis for evaluating small signal stability for the 7 Bus Test system and real French power system

Stability of intelligent energy system and intelligent control methods

In modern power systems, a variety of both objects and the tools of control is expected to be much larger than before. As a result, the dynamic properties of these systems are complicated, and the issues of maintaining stability come to the fore. The paper provides a brief overview of the types of stability, including those that, until recently, were considered local in the electric power systems of Russia. It is shown that in today’s conditions the violation of these types of stability affects the operation of the electric power system as a whole. Therefore, the coordination of control of both normal and emergency modes of the systems takes on a special role and should become more intelligent. In this regard, a brief overview of machine learning developments of control agents at different levels of the control hierarchy is presented

Development of Digital Twin for Load Center on the Example of Distribution Network of an Urban District

The paper proposes a concept of building a digital twin based on the reinforcement learning method. This concept allows implementing an accurate digital model of an electrical network with bidirectional automatic data exchange, used for modeling, optimization, and control. The core of such a model is an agent (potential digital twin). The agent, while constantly interacting with a physical object (electrical grid), searches for an optimal strategy for active network management, which involves short-term strategies capable of controlling the power supplied by generators and/ or consumed by the load to avoid overload or voltage problems. Such an agent can verify its training with the initial default policy, which can be considered as a teacher’s advice. The effectiveness of this approach is demonstrated on a test 77-node scheme and a real 17-node network diagram of the Akademgorodok microdistrict (Irkutsk) according to the data from smart electricity meters

Siting and sizing of wind farms taking into account stochastic nature of generation

The article deals with the problem of the negative impact of wind farms stochastic generation on power grid. One of the ways to reduce the stochasticity of the wind farms generation is their geographically distributed siting. A technique for sizing and distributed siting of wind farms from the standpoint of the influence on the variability of the total generated power is proposed. Modeling of wind power generation with hourly detailing is carried out using the developed Wind-MCA software based on data from archives of long-term observations of ground-based weather stations. The optimal distribution of wind turbines in potential locations is based on a genetic algorithm. The objective function is the coefficient of variation of the power generated by all wind farms in the sites under consideration, depending on the number of wind turbines in their composition. The genetic algorithm is implemented using the built-in MATLAB function. The proposed technique is applied to assess the capacity options and sites for wind farms in the Zabaykalsky Krai. The solution providing the minimum value of the coefficient of variation of the wind farms generated power and high value of the wind farms capacity utilization factor has been obtained